Comments on: Five years on

By: Walt Crawford

Walt Crawford — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 02:46:36 +0000

Scott: The treadmill motor was generating large amounts of radio frequency interference and was badly shielded. RFI at that scale knocks out DSL–the modem gives up on trying to correct the problem.

By: Scott

Scott — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 02:30:14 +0000

>the new treadmill broke our DSL
??
(Visions of human-powered DSL modems are dancing through my head

By: walt crawford

walt crawford — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 01:49:50 +0000

Teague: Well, if you’re saying “by 2019,” that’s a lot different than “five years from now”–and I’m saying multibillion$ business, not necessarily anywhere near the current business.
As for #2, though: Sheet music and actual instruments haven’t gone away. Vinyl LPs haven’t gone away entirely–and audiocassettes certainly didn’t put LPs out of business (or close to it).
You might be right. I wouldn’t even begin to suggest what the case might be by 2019…

By: Teague

Teague — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 19:23:42 +0000

I’m in agreement with you 80%. I have two reasons for disputing your music forecast:
1. The Costco test: The only CDs available in the warehouse shopping icon are oldies collections and reissues of some sort, and a very few top hits. The whole selection fills about one quarter of a media display table. Perhaps not a very rigorous quantitative test, but the sales space devoted by the chain reflected the end of photographic film and VHS tape fairly closely.
2. A little more scientific may be the observation that portability and ease of use seem closely linked to music consumption. Wax cylinders and shellac discs displaced sheet music and actual instruments. Vinyl LPs and singles offered a little more durability in use, before displacement by magnetic tape, which was smaller and cheaper. CDs offered similar portability with better fidelity, but cannot compete in either ease or portability with digital formats.
Before the end of the coming decade, I expect to see music in physical media only for serious audiophiles or collectors of the various physical media.

By: Gerry

Gerry — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 18:52:56 +0000

It’s always 5 years from now, Walt! Our patrons are always surprised when we can’t get everything in the world downloaded for them right now (of course that’s why they come here, when they find that out…), even Overdrive (gasp!) doesn’t have everything and it’s not as simple as put a disc in a player.

By: Tom

Tom — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 03:20:04 +0000

Ah, Mill Creek Entertainment where you get get Capra’s Meet John Doe and George Hamilton as Evel Knievel in the same set. What a phenomenal leveling effect public domain has.
I agree with your observations. Too many people have an either/or attitude about formats. I comfortably bounce between buying music on iTunes and buying cds and watching Netflix online and getting the dvds. There’s a simplicity about having a disc in hand and sticking it in a machine to play. It’s not a broken paradigm.

By: Walt Crawford

Walt Crawford — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 19:01:38 +0000

ileneh: It doesn’t really work that way–I’m not out looking for specific films (and am unlikely to be buying any more collections for a while). I think you could search for those films at the Mill Creek Entertainment site, to see if they’re on any of the sets–but it’s unlikely.

By: ileneh

ileneh — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 12:05:13 +0000

Please let me know when you find The Rat Race and Goodbye Charlie, both with Debbie Reynolds and Tony Curtis! I can’t find them anywhere. Also, don’t miss A Song is Born, with Danny Kaye. It came out on DVD recently and is priceless for its inclusion of some of the top jazz artists of the day!

By: Walt Crawford

Walt Crawford — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 00:33:50 +0000

Daniel,
Unfortunately, it was five years & out–not because I wanted to stop exercising, but because the new treadmill broke our DSL. We’re doing lots of walks for now… And I certainly give credit to the old movies, of all qualities, for keeping me on the treadmill.
Your comments all add substance to the discussion. As to that last, despite Pew’s constant evangelizing, I’d guess 20% of Americans feel their lives are just peachy-keen without broadband (or any home internet access). I’d also guess they’re right.

By: Daniel Cornwall

Daniel Cornwall — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 22:34:19 +0000

First, congratulations on keeping up the treadmilling for five years. That’s a real accomplishment in the exercise world.
Second, I just wanted to say a “me too” about your media predictions. As a now frequent consumer of Netflix “Watch Instantly”, I want to especially second the idea that optical discs (DVD and/or blu-ray) will be around for awhile. Why?
- Optical discs don’t vanish from your personal library like items in your “watch instantly” queue.
- The video on demand solutions that I’m aware of make no provision for commentaries, subtitles or other special features. I don’t need those for “Dragnet 1967″, but do for many movies.
- There are still about 1/3 of Americans who do not have home internet access. According to Pew Internet most of these offline people don’t plan to sign up for broadband anytime soon. So it would be foolish to abandon a potential market of nearly 100,000,000 Americans.