What’s a month between friends?

Back on April 30, 2008, I did something I almost never do: Made a prediction.

And, more to the point, did something a good futurist would never do: Made a falsifiable short-term prediction that would clearly be testable while short-term memory still works.

I was wrong, as I noted here.

This morning, I was checking secondary Gmail accounts (actually ones that have no live uses), which is the only time I’d see Gmail’s free-space allocation so vividly…and it looks as though I was just about a month off. Gmail’s space allocation either hit seven gigabytes early this morning or, possibly, sometime last night.

Hmm. Let’s see. I predicted July 4 in a post dated April 30–so it was a prediction with just over a three-month timeline. I was off by a month. That’s…well, that’s pretty bad, actually. And it suggests that Gmail’s algorithm doesn’t add space at a constant rate. That, or my calculations were just wildly off.

So, here’s my new fearless prediction: When will GMail’s space allocation hit eight gigabytes?

Some time in the future–or not. Vague enough?

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