Given my planned (ha!) “liblog investigation” for 2007 (or one of them, anyway), I’m periodically checking the 213 liblogs from the great middle that I discussed in the August C&I.
Just finished the second such check, and plan to check again every two months or so.
The good news: Only a few of the blogs have explicitly ceased, and even fewer have simply disappeared, being replaced by spam ad pages or other web graffiti.
The perhaps less good news: Taking, say, two months without posts as a sign of possible morbidity, then 31 of 213 have either ceased or gone seriously idle since the end of the scanning period (6/30). That’s just under 15%.
“Why, at that rate, nearly half of them will be gone by the end of June 2007. That’s awful”
(Yes, this is a strawman: The voice of the linear progression believer. Nobody said this. People have certainly assumed either linear or, worse, algebraic progressions in other cases that make no more sense. See the NEA and “the end of leisure reading, just as one bad example.)
I find that highly unlikely. Actually, even if the same percentage disappeared in each third of the year (10/25 is close enough to the end of October, isn’t it?), that would mean that another 26 would go silent over the next four months and another 23 after that, leaving 133–62% of the original 213–not the 55% you might extrapolate from the loss of 15% over four months.
But that’s also unlikely. Some of the 31 will come back to life. Chances are, some significant portion of the 31 went quiet because bloggers graduated or otherwise went through end-of-spring life changes.
Here’s a crude guess: I’ll guess that at least 150 (70%) of the 213 will still be active during the April-June 2007 period. I’m hoping for closer to 165 or 170, but that may be too optimistic.
No halo effect expected: If being mentioned in C&I didn’t encourage people to keep posting (and why on earth should it?), this W.a.R. post certainly shouldn’t have that effect.